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I am getting the same problems!
I guess they changed URL strings?
https://78.media.tumblr.com/46e606a5f3e3a09274927ec217caeeee/tumblr_o1qb2e8EbZ1u9e5leo1_540.jpg
There are still URLs like this however
https://68.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5hjae2f1h1r621gdo1_500.gif
So not everything is changed
This thread that does something similar found an cause too
https://greasyfork.org/en/forum/discussion/30280/
"It turns out that the raw images are being stored in "data.tumblr.com" now instead of "media.tumblr.com".
This doesn't work: http://media.tumblr.com/ce26e4910f94b459f4d16a6bc639d135/tumblr_ohfvftXRKT1r16th2o2_raw.png
But this does: http://data.tumblr.com/ce26e4910f94b459f4d16a6bc639d135/tumblr_ohfvftXRKT1r16th2o2_raw.png"
These links exist. The only problem is certificate issue.
https://data.tumblr.com/fe8077554e3821aa8470613fe951b595/tumblr_oxbiw6Cl6Z1t90l4ro5_raw.jpg
https://data.tumblr.com/46e606a5f3e3a09274927ec217caeeee/tumblr_o1qb2e8EbZ1u9e5leo1_raw.jpg
Although this one gives access denied.
https://data.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5hjae2f1h1r621gdo1_raw.gif
Tumblr use best resolution
This link https://78.media.tumblr.com/fe8077554e3821aa8470613fe951b595/tumblr_oxbiw6Cl6Z1t90l4ro5_540.jpg does not redirect to raw version. It just stays there. Manually changing it to raw gives an error 404 not found. Changing it to 1280 does not result in error.
https://78.media.tumblr.com/fe8077554e3821aa8470613fe951b595/tumblr_oxbiw6Cl6Z1t90l4ro5_1280.jpg
The script should look for the best version. If it's not available, it should look for the next best version. Thank you.